In Consideration of HUMAiN Futures in the Age of Ai

“It’s just quite obvious that things are about to be very different in the next 5 to 10 years.” -Mustafa Suleyman, Ai Expert and DeepMind Co-Founder

In a world marked by rapid technological advancements, ongoing socio-economic shifts, increasing environmental challenges, and the uncertainties accompanying a non-obvious future, the need for forward-thinking approaches has never been more needed or pressing. In the vast landscape of technological advancements accompanying the digital disruptions we are experiencing, few innovations hold as much promise and intrigue as Artificial Intelligence (Ai). With its potential to transform industries, enhance efficiency, and possibly solve complex problems…

AI has become both a beacon of hope and a source of apprehension for humanity.

As we stand at the crossroads of technological evolution, it’s imperative to ponder such questions as:

How do we ensure that Ai serves to uplift rather than undermine human values and dignity?

How do we ensure that Ai includes, rather than excludes our coming generations from the future of work?

And most importantly, how do we ensure that the technology we develop and employ is focused on more HUMAiN futures?

In envisioning HUMAiN futures amidst the rise of Ai, we must first acknowledge the ethical considerations inherent in its development and deployment. From privacy concerns to algorithmic biases, the ethical dimensions of Ai demand meticulous scrutiny and proactive measures, especially in the considerations of what could potentially happen if Ai moves beyond our control. Transparency, accountability, and inclusivity must be woven into the very fabric of Ai systems if we are to mitigate potential harms and safeguard against unintended consequences. Whether it’s safeguarding privacy, promoting fairness and equity, or mitigating the risks of algorithmic bias, this idea of ethical design should serve as a compass in guiding us towards Ai implementations that enhance, rather than diminish human dignity, if it is truly to serve as a support to humanity, both now and in the future. 

One of the fundamental pillars of fostering HUMAiN futures in the AI era is the principle of human-centered design. At its core, human-centered design revolves around the simple yet powerful premise of prioritizing human needs, experiences, and aspirations in the design and implementation of technology. Instead of starting with the capabilities of the technology itself, human-centered design begins by empathizing with the people who will ultimately use and interact with it. When we place human well-being at the forefront of technological innovation, we can develop and cultivate Ai systems that augment human capabilities, empower individuals, and extend our creative and innovative potential. By augmenting, rather than replacing human ingenuity, a human-centered approach to Ai can ultimately hold the key to unlocking its full potential for extending human capabilities for our social and economic benefit.

Central to the ethos of human-centered and/or HUMAiN futures is the belief that meaningful change arises from collaboration and co-creation. In a world characterized by complexity and interconnectedness, no single entity – whether it’s a government, corporation, organization, or community – has all the answers. This ability and willingness to foster collaboration between Ai systems and humans essential in cultivating synergy, and as strange as it sounds, trust. In the pursuit of HUMAiN futures, bringing together diverse voices, a variety of perspectives, and a wide range of expertise, we can begin to co-create Ai that then reflects the needs and aspirations of all of us. In fostering partnerships, engaging interdisciplinary dialogue on the societal and economic implications of Ai, collaboration remains essential; if we are to ensure that the benefits of Ai are shared equitably and that its risks are effectively managed and contained, sooner rather than later. So, rather than viewing AI as a replacement for human creativity and ingenuity, we should embrace it as a complement, for us to engage, and even amplify our collective intelligence. By leveraging AI to automate repetitive tasks, analyze vast datasets, and uncover insights beyond human cognition, we can free up valuable time and resources to focus on creativity, innovation, and meaningful interpersonal connections moving forward.

As Ai continues to reshape the economic landscape and redefine the nature of work, it’s imperative to prioritize policies and initiatives that promote inclusive prosperity, social resilience, and even economic dignity. All of which will be vital to ensure a future that we need and want to aspire, too. Meaning that ongoing investments in education, training, and lifelong learning are essential to equip individuals, leaders, and even organizations with the skills, competencies, capabilities, and adaptability that will be deeply needed for our future generations to thrive in an Ai-driven economy. Additionally, measures such as universal basic income and worker reskilling/upskilling programs will continue to rise up in this Ai-driven economy. All of which become vital, if we are to mitigate the current and coming disruptive effects of automation and ensure that the benefits of Ai are equitably distributed across our society.

HUMAiN futures demands a steadfast commitment to ethical responsibility in the development and deployment of technology. As we harness the power of Ai, automation, and data-driven systems, we must remain vigilant against the risks of unintended consequences, algorithmic bias, misuse, and Ai moving beyond our control and containment. By adhering to and engaging ethical frameworks, standards, and guidelines, we can determine to mitigate these risks that we are being made abundantly aware of and ensure that technology remains a force for good in the future.

Navigating HUMAiN futures in the time of artificial intelligence will require a multi-faceted approach that encompasses ethical design, human-centered principles, collaborative governance, and inclusive policies that help us avoid the dystopian futures that we often consider, thereby, creating possible futures that we want to aspire towards. By embracing these principles and harnessing the transformative power of Ai for the greater good, we can chart a course towards a future where technology serves as a catalyst for human flourishing, rather than a threat to our collective well-being. As we embark deeper into this journey and down this path that seems unavoidable, let us remain steadfast in our commitment to shaping Ai futures that are guided by compassion, empathy, and a profound respect for the dignity and worth of every individual, both socially and economically, allowing us to create a future that is truly worthy of our aspirations and better serves our future generations for years to come.

“Ai is far deeper and more powerful than just another technology. The risk isn’t in overhyping it; it’s rather in missing the magnitude of the coming wave.” -Mustafa Suleyman via The Coming Wave

Unleashing The Power Of Ai And LLMs: Is This The Cognitive Exoskeleton Of The Future?

“The goal of the computer is to provide people with the means to extend people’s minds and bodies. It is an exoskeleton that expands our human reach.” -Jean Louise-Gassee

In the ever-evolving and exponentially shifting landscape of technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly emerging and permeating our current context as go to transformative tools that have captured our imagination and consideration from their ease of access and useability, often reshaping the way we think, work, and interact with information, especially as it no longer takes an engineer or a coder to work with these tools. In this dynamic world of Artificial Intelligence (Ai), ChatGPT has made itself stand out as a groundbreaking tool that exemplifies the concept of what could be referred to as a “cognitive exoskeleton.” This term and concept of “cognitive exoskeleton” was recently shared on The Futurists podcast by guest Marshall Kirkpatrick, who discussed this idea of Ai and LLMs becoming, for better or worse, a cognitive exoskeleton that we are beginning to rely more and more upon, both in our daily professional and personal lives.

The most popular of those LLMs, designed by OpenAI, is ChatGPT, which serves as a virtual assistant and an extension of our cognitive capabilities that can enhance our communication, problem-solving, and information processing. Which may be why Kirkpatrick uses this metaphor of “cognitive exoskeleton” to capture the essence of how we are beginning to use these LLMs, such as ChatGPT. Just as an “industrial” type of exoskeleton can enhance the physical capabilities of its wearer, Ai and LLMs now serve us as a cognitive exoskeleton, augmenting our mental capacities and propelling us into new realms of efficiency and even innovation, all of which will have ongoing impact on our conversational interactions and the broader landscape of human and machine collaboration.

Building This Idea of Understanding the Cognitive Exoskeleton

A cognitive exoskeleton, while being a metaphorical concept to describe the augmentation of human cognitive abilities through the use of these external tools or technologies, has been particularly powerful in capturing our imagination of what Artificial Intelligence (Ai) is, and what it can become, especially as we are just tapping into the surface of its possible capabilities. Just as we discovered that those physical “industrial” exoskeletons could truly enhance the physical capabilities of its wearer, we are now discovering that these LLMs or cognitive exoskeletons are emerging very quickly in their ability to enhance and extend our human mental capacities (as long as we are also aware that these Ai tools, while improving continuously, are still open to their own cognitive hallucinations). In many ways, this concept of a cognitive exoskeleton refers to the symbiotic relationship between human cognition and artificial intelligence (AI), that we now see growing and expanding. In many ways, it’s a partnership that can empower individuals to surpass current limitations of their natural mental capacities, illuminating blind spots, engaging new thinking and ideas, enhancing creative and innovative possibilities, as well as problem-solving, and information processing. We are at the early stages of really seeing Ai and LLMs act as an extension of our cognitive abilities and capacities, providing immediate and often dynamic support, assistance, and amplification.

Information Processing and Analysis: One of the fundamental roles of these cognitive exoskeletons (Ai-LLMs) is to be able to streamline the vast amount of information available in today’s digital age. Ai and LLMs excel at processing and analyzing data at speeds that have been previously unattainable by the human brain alone, sifting rapidly through massive datasets (depending on the system’s contraints), to identify patterns and extract meaningful insights, presenting users with breathtaking immediacy, of distilled information that can allow for more informed decision-making, aiding us as humans in dealing more effectively with data overload and the current information firehose.

Language Understanding and Communication: These LLMs, in particular, can demonstrate a remarkable capability to understand and generate human-like text. This linguistic prowess allows for the facilitation of natural language interactions, enabling often seamless communication and interactions between humans and machines, which in many ways is unprecedented and not previously attainable. Consider how chatbots can now provide customer support for language translation services breaking down language barriers, allowing us to see how these LLMs are and will play a pivotal role in enhancing our ability to communicate and collaborate globally.

Creativity and Innovation: Ai algorithms, when fed with and combining information from diverse datasets and sources, can now, with general accessibility, generate novel ideas and solutions that may elude human minds and thinking. These cognitive exoskeletons can now empower individuals to easily leverage Ai’s creative potential, often sparking innovation across various domains and fields, from art and design to scientific research. And if it is not a cognitive exoskeleton, it is surely beginning to serve many as a collegial copilot. This augmentation and collaboration between our human creativity and Ai-generated insights is beginning to foster inspirational ideas and even breakthroughs that were once deemed impossible, and if not impossible, lacking in consideration.

Personalized Assistance: As these Ai systems become more evolved and sophisticated, we are seeing how they can tailor their support to individual, and even organizational needs. Whether it’s predicting user preferences in entertainment, suggesting personalized learning paths, or offering context-aware assistance, these cognitive exoskeletons (LLMs) we are finding can adapt to our unique characteristics, enhancing efficiency and overall user experience, offering personalized content, services, and suggestions, allowing for the creation of a more tailored user-centric or centered experience.

Problem Solving: When it comes to pattern recognition, Ai can identify complex patterns and relationships within data, that contributes to problem-solving processes in a variety of areas and field. But it is not just in the pattern recognition, but the speed in which it provides this pattern recognition, that we often find so astonishing. We are seeing Ai assist, both individuals and organizations, in complex problem-solving by analyzing, often vast amounts of data and then identifying patterns or correlations that might be challenging for humans to discern. Especially in a time of information and data overload. Thereby allowing humans to test and analyze solutions in virtual environments before implementing them in the real world, helping humans make informed decisions by considering a multitude of factors and potential outcomes, when it is needed most, proactively and prior to the urgency of now and reactive decision-making.

Learning and Education: In considering adaptive learning, Ai has shown growing possibilities for facilitating adaptive learning environments, allowing for the tailoring of educational content to individual learning styles and preferences, which can provide for and create more opportunities and support for personalized learning. Seeing Ai from the stance of an augmentation tool, especially regarding the heavy workload of educators, it can be a support for tailoring learning experiences based on individual preferences, behaviors and needs, offering personalized content, recommendations, and assistance.

Seeing these Large Language Models, such as ChatGPT, as a Conversational Companion

Communication remains at the core of human interaction, and what has resounded with people and ChatGPT, is this significant breakthrough in its ability to transform how we communicate and, in many ways, seamlessly integrate this fundamental aspect into our lives. Acting as a conversational companion and even thought partner, ChatGPT can assist in a variety of ways, from answering questions and providing information to engaging in natural language dialogues. As Ginni Rometty, former CEO of IBM and author of Good Power shares, “Some people call this artificial intelligence, but the reality is this technology will enhance us. So instead of artificial intelligence, I think we’ll augment our intelligence.” The real-time interaction with ChatGPT transforms ordinary conversations into dynamic exchanges that can enhance and amplify productivity, creativity, and even companionship, both personally and professionally, which is reason for the term cognitive exoskeleton.

Information Retrieval and Synthesis: ChatGPT, as an LLM, has shown the ability to excel at retrieving and synthesizing information from a vast array of sources. It serves as a cognitive exoskeleton by augmenting our ability to not only access and process information, but to do it rapidly. Whether it’s finding relevant details, summarizing complex topics, or assisting in research, ChatGPT becomes a valuable ally in the quest for knowledge, in a time of data and information overload. But it is also used with the understanding and realization that, even though it is continuously evolving and improving, it is prone to experiencing what have been termed “hallucinations” and/or making things up and providing incorrect information or fabrications, which according to the New York Times, happens about three percent of the time.

Language Comprehension and Generation: One of the highlights and features of ChatGPT is its natural language processing capabilities and its ability to provide real time data analysis and synthesis, provide support in multiple languages, as well as being able to generate poems, stories, essays, articles, papers, etc., with astounding speed and quickness. It can, often based on the ability of the user to prompt appropriately, show understanding of context, can interpret nuances, and generates human-like responses in a conversational tone. This linguistic capability enables fluid and coherent communication, making interactions with ChatGPT feel remarkably close to conversations with another human. Which supports the human-machine augmentation that serves as a cognitive exoskeleton.

Problem-Solving and Decision Support: By engaging people in what is seen as thoughtful discussions, through artful prompting, ChatGPT has become a catalyst for problem-solving and decision-making. It can offer diverse perspectives, generate ideas, and assist in evaluating options. The collaborative nature of these interactions transforms ChatGPT into a thinking partner, expanding the cognitive capacities of its users. 

Personalized Assistance: ChatGPT adapts to user preferences and needs, providing personalized assistance in various domains. From offering recommendations based on user history to providing tailored information, the cognitive exoskeleton aspect of ChatGPT ensures that interactions are not just generic but customized to individual requirements. Which is why we are now seeing people use it in a myriad of manners, from answering simple questions, to finding and synthesizing information in a variety of outputs and forms, generating presentations and creating powerpoint slide decks, to providing outlines for creating and facilitating a multitude of meetings, just to name a few ways that it augments from the perspective of a cognitive exoskeleton, as an LLM.

Remaining and Being Aware of the Challenges and Ethical Considerations Moving Forward

While Large Language Models such as ChatGPT have exploded across the technological landscape and ramped up the Ai conversation of things to come. They have done this by providing widespread awareness and access on a whole new level, beyond what was previously available to us as a society at an everyday level. While these cognitive exoskeletons (Ai-LLMs) promise unprecedented benefits through augmentation and hold immense potential for the future, the conversation also brings forth ethical considerations and challenges that will have to be faced by our organizations and society as a whole. Issues such as data privacy, bias’ in algorithms and responses, concerns of information dissemination, the potential for job displacement, and the need for responsible use of this technology warrant and require careful attention and consideration for the future.

Or as Ai pioneer Mustafa Suleyman and author of The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-First Century’s Greatest Dilemma speaks of and argues for often, is the concern that these Ai’s are accelerating quickly, possibly beyond our control, and will need a “containment” plan over, at the very least, the next five years. Striking a balance between harnessing the power of Ai, enhancing user experiences, mitigating potential risks, and ensuring responsible and ethical use is and will be crucial for the continued success, acceptance, and harmonious integration of these cognitive exoskeletons into our daily lives, especially if we are to avoid what Suleyman refers to as “unintended consequences” of these Ai in the future.

The Knowledge Era and a time of Ai augmentation and the cognitive exoskeleton is upon us, ushering in a new age of human-machine collaboration. Ai and LLMs serve as integral components of this cognitive exoskeleton, empowering us to consider how we can overcome cognitive limitations, tackle complex problems, and unlock creative and innovative possibilities. By embracing what is seen as a transformative partnership, we can navigate the evolving landscape of technology with a growing and renewed sense of curiosity, creativity, and efficiency. Cognitive exoskeletons such as ChatGPT mark a significant milestone in the evolution of Ai-powered tools, especially in its widespread ability to engage multitudes in the growing conversation around Ai and its current and untapped potential, for better or worse. The ability of these LLMs to understand, generate, and interact in natural language propels us into a future where human and machine collaboration becomes increasingly seamless. Embracing tools such as ChatGPT as a cognitive companion opens up new possibilities for communication, problem-solving, and learning. As we move forward and navigate this ever-evolving technological frontier, it is both essential and imperative that we remain vigilant, ensuring that these cognitive exoskeletons align with ethical principles, user privacy, and the shared values of a responsible Ai-powered future. 

“Artificial intelligence is not a substitute for human intelligence; it is a tool to amplify human creativity and ingenuity.” -via Fei-Fe Li, Co-Director of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and IT Professor at the Graduate School of Business

Embracing Panarchy In Education: A Framework For Resilience And Adaptability

“Complexity demands resilience, and that’s what panarchy offers. Resilience in the face of complexity is a challenge even when you apply rigorous intelligence and integrity to develop a coherent and flexible strategy.” -Robert David Steele via The Open-Source Everything Manifesto: Transparency, Truth and Trust

In a rapidly changing world, the traditional structures of education are facing unprecedented challenges. The need for adaptability and resilience has never been more pronounced. Today’s educational leaders face the challenge of steering organizations and institutions through unprecedented levels of uncertainty in the midst of accelerated change. In today’s complex and ever-changing world, leaders across various fields face the challenge of adapting to dynamic environments and navigating uncertainty. To thrive in this dynamic landscape, leaders must embrace the concept of Panarchy, a framework rooted in ecological science but increasingly relevant in various fields, including education. In the same way, educational leaders are also faced with a rapidly changing landscape, influenced by technological disruptions and advancements, shifting societal struggles and values that are moving into and influencing the educational arena, as well as ongoing and evolving pedagogical approaches and shifts.

To thrive in this dynamic environment, educational leaders must embrace a new paradigm that promotes resilience and adaptability. To thrive in such conditions, exploring what is called the Panarchy framework can help educational leaders with the process of navigating and adapting to the complexities of their roles. Panarchy, a concept borrowed from ecological systems and science, underscores the interconnected, adaptive nature and interconnected contexts of educational environments. The concept of panarchy offers a fresh perspective on how we can reshape our educational systems. Applying the principles of panarchy to education also holds the potential for educational leaders seeking to create resilient, flexible, and learner-centric ecosystems. As educational leaders navigate the complex and ever-changing landscape of modern education, understanding and embracing the principles of panarchy has become more critical than ever.

So, before we move forward, let’s first dig in a bit to find out what actually is the panarchy framework?

Panarchy, originating in ecology, is a conceptual framework applied to diverse disciplines, that recognize the cyclical nature of growth, stability, and transformation within systems. In the context of education, panarchy views learning environments as dynamic, interconnected systems undergoing phases of exploitation, conservation, release, and reorganization.

The authors of The Surprising Power of Liberating Structures add, “Panarchy enables people to visualize how systems are embedded in systems and helps them understand how these interdependencies influence the spread of change.” Allowing for “opportunity windows for innovations to spread among levels and across boundaries.” Which is incredibly important, as Charles Johnston puts forth, “Very real crises mark our time. And as much as we might like it otherwise, it appears that doing what we have always done, only harder, will not solve them.” Or as Leah Zaidi shares in Building Brave New Worlds: Science Fiction and Transition Design adds that “panarchy accounts for the dual, and seemingly contradictory, characteristics of all complex systems — ‘stability and change’ and it states that ecosystems go through four basic stages: exploitation (rapid expansion), conservation (slow accumulation, stability), release (rapid decline due to changing conditions), and reorganization (a new equilibrium).” This means understanding as a system, and especially as a leader, the concept of resilience in the organization. Especially as the system determines what needs to discarded moving forward, what needs to be preserved to add continuing value for the future, and what needs to be renewed as the system births forward new structures, processes, and learnings.

Leah Zaidi shares how panarchy addesses the concept of resilience in Building Brave New Worlds as, “Resilience determines how vulnerable a system is to unexpected disturbances and surprises that can exceed or break that control. Transitions to a new equilibrium are difficult because we resist change, and the incentive to maintain the status quo is high, particularly for those in positions of power and privilege.” She continues with, “When we design future states, we focus on what we need to create, but understanding what we need to destroy is equally valuable. The concept of creative destruction — the incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones.”

In much the same way we consider the idea of unlearning and new learning, this cycle of birth, maturity, creative destruction, and renewal allows for the discarding of structures, processes and systems relationships that have run their course, while creating the space for the emergence of new structures, processes, and relationships. Or as Zaidi adds, “This framework advocates that, as we backcast from a preferred future state, we determine what needs to be preserved, while forecasting what needs to be destroyed to make room for elements from that preferred future state.”

Now that we’ve given some context and understanding to panarchy, let’s consider why this framework and the understandings it puts forth can be leveraged and even might be crucial for educational leaders moving forward.

Let’s begin with a few ways that educational leaders can leverage the panarchy framework:

Recognize the Phases: As mentioned previously, recognition of and/or realization of and understanding the phases the organization or institution is in (exploitation, conservation, release, or reorganization) allows for better and more strategic decision-making. Here are some considerations for each of those phases:

  • Exploitation: a phase that is characterized by stability and efficiency. This is where systems are highly organized and often operate at their peak. 
  • Conservation: as systems continue to evolve, there is a point that is reached where they become resistant to change, which in this phase, represents a period of inertia and preservation of existing practices, even if and when they become less effective.
  • Release: this phase occurs when external shocks or internal pressures disrupt the system, which leads to a time of uncertainty and upheaval. COVID would be an example of this, as well as any other technological breakthrough, disruption or economic crisis.          
  • Reorganization: following the release phase, systems have the opportunity to reorganize and adapt to the new reality, which can open the door to innovation, reinvention, and the opportunity to grow and evolve. 

Promote Exploration and Innovation: through the panarchy phases, there is opportunity to encourage experimentation with new teaching methods, curricula, strategies and initiatives, as well as technologies that allows for the space to move from conservation to release and reorganization.

Prepare for Shocks: in much the same way organizations in engage in foresight processes and scenario planning to be proactive to towards the future, developing contingency plans and mechanisms to manage unexpected disruptions, allows individuals and the organization to foster a sense of adaptability during release phases.

Facilitate Reorganization: understanding of the phases, supports and helps leaders in guiding organizations and institutions through the reorganization phase by promoting and engaging in learning and processes that support flexibility, adaptability, supporting not only the organization, but all within the opportunity to adapt to the new systems.

Continuous Learning and Adaptation: when leaders embrace the cyclical nature of systems by encouraging continuous learning, reflection, and adaptation, it allows the organization and those within to respond more positively and effectively to the ongoing and evolving nature of educational goals, initiatives, strategies, and methods, especially in a time accelerated change, a growth in external systems shocks, and the rise of technological disruptions.

Collaboration and Feedback: engaging educational partners and stakeholders in collaborative processes and decision-making allows for greater understanding and alignment of changes towards meeting the needs, considerations, and expectations of the educational community.

Now, let’s consider why panarchy might be a crucial understanding for educational leaders:

Adaptability: in an era of rapid and accelerated change, educational leaders must learn to be flexible and adaptable, especially to the growing internal and external shocks that reverberate more and more often across our organizational ecosystems. Panarchy helps leaders recognize when their institutions are stuck in conservation phases, prompting them to release old practices and adapt to new and evolving realities.

Resilience: as stated previously, panarchy emphasizes the importance of resilience in and across our systems. In applying this framework, educational leaders can build up organizations and institutions that can withstand those external shocks, allowing them to view a crisis as an opportunity for change, and/or even transformation. Which harkens back to Nassim Taleb’s work in Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder in that, “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty.” Which means, without that individual and organizational resilience, organizations and institutions can become “fragile” in the face of these internal and external shocks.

Innovation: the release and reorganization phases of panarchy are conducive to creative thinking and innovation. When educational leaders can harness these phases to encourage that creativity, experimentation, and the pursuit of new ideas, it can lead to positive changes and transformation in supporting improved outcomes for students and create value for stakeholders, educational partners, and the educational community.

Strategic Planning: panarchy enables leaders to develop strategic long-term plans, and by recognizing the cyclical nature of systems, leaders can anticipate changes, plan for reorganization, and stay ahead of the curve, which is incredibly important in these volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous times and context we find ourselves working and living in.

Sustainability: the balancing of these phases, especially exploitation and conversation will be vital for leaders, especially in prioritizing sustainability over short-term gains to create educational organizations and institutions that not only endure, but thrive over time, especially in today’s constantly shifting and evolving context.

Enhanced Decision Making: when leaders are able to recognize which phase their organization is in, they can then make more informed and strategic decisions, discerning when to maintain the status quo and when to drive change and transformation for the organization.

In essence, the Panarchy framework provides a holistic view of how systems evolve and transform over time, offering leaders a valuable tool to navigate complexity, promote resilience, and drive innovation and change within their organizations and institutions. Which also reminds us that the Panarchy framework can be particularly advantageous for leaders experiencing and working in VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) environments, which we all seem to be facing in today’s world. 

Here’s a few examples or considerations of how the framework lines up with and helps leaders to navigate and thrive in these challenging VUCA conditions:

Resilience in Volatility: panarchy teaches leaders to recognize that systems are inherently dynamic and that periods of volatility are part of the natural cycle, as well as ongoing renewal and even obsolescence. This understanding helps leaders to anticipate and prepare for sudden changes, rather than being caught off guard. Leaders can use the panarchy framework to identify opportunities for transformation during volatile phases, turning disruptions into moments of adaptation and growth.

Adaptation in Uncertainty: VUCA environments are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Panarchy emphasizes the need for systems to adapt to constantly changing circumstances. Leaders who understand this can actively seek new opportunities for reorganization when faced with ambiguity, thereby using this uncertainty as a springboard for innovation and strategic change.

Complexity Management: panarchy allows for and offers a structured way to make sense of complexity, helping leaders recognize when systems become overly complex during the conservation phase and need to be simplified or reorganized for greater efficiency. By understanding that cyclical nature within systems, leaders can strategically manage and plan for it, preventing systems from becoming too rigid, unwieldy, or “fragile.”

Avenues for Innovation in Ambiguity: ambiguity often hinders and can even paralyzes decision-making, especially when leaders are working in and focusing on certainties. Panarchy provides leaders with a roadmap for navigating through it, and thereby allowing for the release and reorganization phases as times to encourage creativity and experimentation, leading towards innovative solutions to ambiguous problems.

Long-Term Strategic Planning: it is incredibly challenging to think and act with a long-term focus when working in VUCA environments. However, the panarchy framework encourages leaders to work from a systemic view of their organizations and recognize the cyclicality of the and their systems. Engaging this long-term perspective helps leaders anticipate changes, plan for adaptation, and position their organizations towards sustained success even in the midst of uncertain conditions.

Sustainable Leadership: in VUCA environments, leaders must find the equilibrium and manage the tension between balancing exploitation and conservation, and maintaining stability and embracing change, allowing leaders to engage in approaches that account for and support short-term objectives, as well as long-term resilience across the organization.

Continuous Learning and Adaptation: in VUCA environments, learning and adaptation are ongoing processes and panarchy encourages leaders to embrace the idea that change is constant and that continuous learning is necessary for survival and success moving forward. With this understanding, leaders can instill a culture of adaptability and learning within their organizations, ensuring they remain flexible, “antifragile” and responsive to today’s evolving and shifting conditions, both internal and external of the organization.

In summary, understanding the panarchy framework equips today’s leaders with the tools and mindset needed to effectively navigate VUCA environments. Encouraging leaders to embrace change, foster resilience, and promote innovation, effectively enabling them to thrive in the face of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.

However, before wrapping up how the panarchy framework can be support for today’s educational leaders, it behooves them to also realize that it can a valuable tool for educators in preparing students for the future by fostering adaptability, resilience, and innovation. 

Here’s how educators can use the panarchy framework to better equip students for an ever-changing world and non-obvious future:

Understanding Panarchy in Education and Global Citizenship: at its core, panarchy in education emphasizes the interconnectedness of learning environments and the dynamic nature of educational and even global systems. It recognizes that education is not a linear process but a complex, adaptive system that evolves over time. In a panarchic framework, multiple scales of learning, from individual classrooms to entire educational organizations and institutions, coexist and interact, creating a network that allows for constant adaptation, allowing students to learn about the impact of their actions on a larger scale, encouraging a sense of responsibility as global citizens. Engaging global issues, such as sustainability, social justice, and intercultural communication, can help students develop a broader understanding of their role in shaping the world.

Fostering Resilience in Learners: a key advantage of embracing panarchy in education is the promotion of resilience in learners, helping prepare them for the uncertainties of the future, which is often not a part of traditional educational models. The cultivation of resilience through engaging diverse perspectives, varied learning environments, and adaptive strategies supports students in realizing that change is a natural part of life, and in becoming more adept at navigating change and helping them become better equipped to face the challenges of an ever-evolving world through a growth mindset.

Customizing Learning Pathways: panarchy challenges the one-size-fits-all approach to education, advocating for more personalized and adaptive learning pathways. In recognizing the unique strengths, interests, and learning styles of individual students, educators can then tailor their approach to meet these diverse needs. This idea of customization not only enhances student engagement, but also fosters a love for learning as students see the relevance of education in and to their own lives. Encouraging students to seek out new information, explore interests, and adapt to changing circumstances prepares them to thrive in a knowledge-based, dynamic world.

Breaking Down Silos in Education: educational systems are often compartmentalized, with subjects taught in isolation and little collaboration between disciplines. Panarchy encourages the breaking down of these silos, promoting interdisciplinary learning and a holistic understanding of knowledge. This interconnected approach mirrors the real-world challenges that require a blend of skills and knowledge from various domains. Educators can encourage students to think creatively, experiment with new ideas, and explore different problem-solving approaches, such as project-based learning and open-ended assignments can help students to develop critical thinking and creativity, which are essential skills in a world that has come to place high value on innovation.

Nurturing Lifelong Learners: panarchy supports the idea of lifelong learning by instilling in students the ability to adapt and learn continuously. The traditional model of education tends to focus on a fixed period of formal schooling, but the panarchic approach recognizes that learning is a lifelong journey. By fostering a love for learning and providing the tools for self-directed exploration, educators can empower students to thrive in an ever-changing educational landscape, reminding them that learning is not static but constantly evolving like the world around us.

Preparedness for Future Challenges: by understanding the cyclical nature of change and disruption in systems, students can be better prepared for future challenges, such as when educators discuss real-world examples of how societies and organizations have adapted to emerging issues, such as climate change or pandemics. This broader perspective enables students to think critically about current and future global challenges and engage in solutions towards those challenges.

In a rapidly evolving educational landscape, embracing the panarchy framework can be a powerful tool for educational leaders, especially in navigating the complexities of the current context most find themselves working in and under. By recognizing, understanding, harnessing, and leveraging the dynamics of exploitation, conservation, release, and reorganization, leaders can foster resilience, adaptability and innovation in their organizations and institutions. This not only helps in responding to external shocks but also positions the educational system to thrive in this ever-changing world. The key is to remain open to new possibilities, encourage innovation, and promote a culture of continuous learning and adaptation, all while keeping the best interests of students and the community at heart.

In conclusion, panarchy provides a useful framework for understanding complex systems of people and nature. Its emphasis on hierarchical structuring, adaptability, and cross-scale linkages has important implications for the design of educational systems. By embracing these principles, educational systems can become more effective at preparing students for the challenges of the future.

“If a living system is suffering from ill health, the remedy is to connect it with more of itself.” -Francisco Varella

Unveiling The Hidden Power Of Human Capital In System Transformation

In our fast-paced and ever-evolving world, along with a long-running pursuit for efficiency and functionality, we often find ourselves focusing more intensely on the technical, structural aspects of systems: the frameworks, models, components, functions, and processes, as well as its inputs and outputs. While these elements are undoubtedly vital, we must also recognize that a system is not just a mechanical structure; it encompasses a critical, often overlooked organic component—human capital.

In a world that is increasingly becoming dominated by technology and this technological disruption, it is much easier to become fixated on those tangible parts of our systems. However, to fully appreciate and unlock the true potential of our systems, we must look beyond those mechanical structures. We need to recognize the invisible force that propels innovation and transformation – which lies in our human capital and the humanness of our organizations and their systems.

Our ability to harness and then unleash that human capital, aimed at creating a dynamic and profound impact through increased awareness, agency, creativity, and innovation, ultimately plays a pivotal role in any systems transformation, as we look to meet the unique, adaptive and often intractable challenges that we often are faced with in today’s systems, allowing us to drive innovation forward. 

In many ways, it allows us to begin to increase our capacity to innovate innovation.

Which begins with:

  • Unleashing Human Capital (the Resource and Asset of Us): Our systems are intricate, interdependent, ever-evolving entities that transcend the physical and structural, which exist in our organizations both as the seen and the unseen. In those systems, our human capital, encompassing the skills, knowledge, and competencies of individuals within these systems, is the lifeblood that fuels the systems engine. It is tempting to tend to think of systems as rigid structures governed solely by mathematical models and logical frameworks, and while these elements provide the scaffolding, it is the human factor that brings life and adaptability to these systems. Which means our human resource, which encompasses skills, knowledge, and competencies, will play a fundamental role in the effectiveness of any system. And while these intangible qualities often go unnoticed, but unnoticed or not, they exist as the driving force behind the vitality and adaptability of our systems.
  • Engaging Systems Awareness: Human beings possess a remarkable capacity for awareness. Unlike algorithms, we have the ability to perceive nuances, connections, and context within a system. This awareness is the key to identifying areas that require transformation, improvement, and adaptation. It’s our innate guidance system. One of the critical roles of human capital is its ability to grasp the intricacies and interdependencies within a system. Human beings are uniquely equipped to understand the complexities of a system and perceive the cause-and-effect relationships that may not be immediately evident in data or models. This awareness is invaluable in identifying areas that require improvement and adaptation. Human awareness is the compass that guides a system through a complex and ever-changing world. Unlike algorithms, human beings possess the innate ability to recognize nuances, interconnections, and the context within which a system operates. This awareness is the first step toward identifying areas that require transformation and improvement.
  • Agency As the Driver for Change: Human capital is the agent of transformation within a system. Individuals within an organization or community have the power to initiate and drive change. This agency can manifest in various forms, from advocating for new policies to introducing innovative solutions to long-standing problems. The willingness to take initiative and advocate for change is a characteristic that can redefine the trajectory of a system. Systems are not static entities; they are living organisms that need to adapt to remain relevant. They evolve in response to external pressures and internal needs. Human agency is the driving force behind this adaptation. Human agency is the force that propels this evolution. Individuals within the system have the power to initiate and drive change. Their advocacy for new policies, innovative solutions, and adaptability of existing structures is what propels the transformation process. Human capital is the agent of transformation within a system. Individuals within an organization or community have the power to initiate and drive change. This agency can manifest in various forms, from advocating for new policies to introducing innovative solutions to long-standing problems. The willingness to take initiative and advocate for change is a characteristic that can redefine the trajectory of a system. Agency is the spark that ignites the transformation process.
  • Creativity and Innovation: Creativity and innovation are the lifeblood of dynamic systems. Without these qualities, systems stagnate and become obsolete. Human capital provides the creative spark needed to fuel adaptation and transformation. It’s our ability to think beyond the known, propose innovative solutions, and navigate unforeseen challenges. Systems need to adapt and evolve to remain relevant and effective. Human capital provides the creative and innovative spark required for transformation. It is the capacity to think beyond conventional wisdom and plausible outcomes, propose novel solutions, and adapt to unforeseen challenges. Creativity is not limited to artistic pursuits; it extends to finding inventive ways to improve the functionality of a system. Without creativity and innovation, systems stagnate and become obsolete. Human capital provides the creative impulse that fuels adaptation and transformation. It is the ability to think beyond established boundaries, propose novel solutions, and navigate unforeseen challenges that defines the innovative capacity of a system.

It is how we begin to consider innovating innovation in our organizations and systems.

As a simple example, in education, teachers who adapt to new teaching methods and technologies, and who promote and encourage critical thinking and problem-solving, and adapt to evolving educational needs are enhancing the education system. Their human capital is central to preparing students for the challenges of the future and driving innovation.

In conclusion…

In a world characterized by accelerated, rapid, and often volatile change, increasing complexity, and unprecedented challenges, it is crucial to recognize the vital role of human capital in system transformation. Beyond the tangible structures and frameworks, our systems are enriched from human awareness, agency, creativity, and innovation that breathe life into them. These elements are not just the hidden pillars of transformation but also the very essence of progress and adaptability. In an era where these new challenges continually emerge, our ability to harness the full potential of our human capital and capacities is the key to building systems that can adapt, thrive, and make a positive impact on our rapidly changing world.

As we navigate the ever-evolving landscape of the 21st century, harnessing human capacities and competencies will be the linchpin for true system transformation, enabling us to tackle novel challenges and pave the way for a more innovative future. As we continue to grapple with complex and interconnected challenges, our ability to innovate innovation will be the driving force behind a brighter, more adaptive, and resilient future. In this journey, innovation isn’t just a tool; it becomes our most powerful resource, enabling us to navigate the uncharted waters of the 21st century with confidence and ingenuity. By understanding and nurturing our human capital, we not only innovate within our systems but also innovate innovation itself, ensuring a brighter and more adaptive future for all.

Navigating The AI Revolution In Education: Moving Beyond The Classroom (Part 2)

“Humankind is facing unprecedented revolutions, all our old stories are crumbling and no new story has so far emerged to replace them. How can we prepare ourselves and our children for a world of such unprecedented transformations and radical uncertainties?” -Yuval Noah Harari via On What the Year 2050 has in Store for Humankind

AI will have a profound impact on the future of work for students, which will necessitate preparing students for a rapidly evolving job market, requiring new skill sets, capacities and competencies moving forward. As AI transforms the world of work, students will need to adapt, remain flexible, by acquiring a mix of technical and soft skills, while embracing a continuous learning journey throughout their lifetime, and being prepared for a turbulent, rapidly evolving and exponential shifting world of work. The ability to work alongside AI and leverage its capabilities will be a valuable skill for the future workforce. The future of work will likely require students to adapt by embracing lifelong learning, developing digital literacy, critical thinking, enhanced decision-making, and problem-solving skills, in order to be prepared for a dynamic, shifting and globally competitive job market.

Here are some of the ways in which AI is likely to influence the future of work for students:

  • Automation of Routine Tasks: AI and automation technologies are likely to take over routine and repetitive tasks across various industries. This means that jobs that involve primarily mundane, manual, or predictable work may diminish and/or become scarcer. Students will need to focus on skills and career paths that require creativity, critical and innovative thinking and problem-solving, as these are areas, for now, are less susceptible to automation.
  • Skill Requirements: As automation expands and increases across the world of work, there will be a growing demand for workers with skills in AI, machine learning, data science, and robotics. Students who acquire these technical skills will be well-positioned for a changing job market. However, they will also need to complement these technical skills with a strong foundation in other areas, such as ethics, communication, and teamwork.
  • AI Enhanced Decision-Making: AI can assist professionals in making better decisions by providing data-driven insights. This means that students will need to be adept at working with AI tools and interpreting the results to inform and complement their decision-making.
  • New Job Roles: AI will continue to create new job roles, many of which don’t currently exist. Students will need to be adaptable and open to learning new skills throughout their careers to keep up and stay relevant with evolving and shifting roles and industries in the world of work.
  • Enhanced Productivity: AI can enhance worker productivity by automating certain tasks, allowing individuals to focus on higher-value, strategic work. This can lead to a more efficient and agile workforce. Which will require a growth mindset and the capacity to work effectively with these tools and platforms.
  • Changing Work Environments: AI can enable remote work, virtual collaboration, and flexible scheduling. Students should be prepared for diverse work environments and digital communication tools, as well as being able to work effectively, especially in a time of growing globalization, cross culturally.
  • Life-Long Learning: The rapid evolution of technology and the job market will require students to embrace lifelong learning. Continuous skills development and upskilling will be an ongoing and essential part of staying competitive in a changing workforce.
  • Global Competition: AI and technology have made it easier for companies to hire talent from all around the world. This means that students may and will face increased competition in the job market from candidates across the globe.
  • Human and Machine Collaboration: Students will need to learn how to effectively collaborate with AI systems and robots, which the release of generative AI has made abundantly clear. This includes understanding the strengths and limitations of AI and other technologies, and having the skillsets to  leverage it as a tool in their work.
  • Ethical Considerations: As AI becomes more integrated into the workplace, there will be ethical and regulatory considerations that students need to be aware of, such as data privacy, bias, and the responsible use of AI. Something we are seeing as algorithms become much more prevalent in and begin to exude influence upon our thinking and decision-making processes.
  • Emerging Industries: Ai will drive the growth of new industries, such as autonomous vehicles, healthcare technologies, and green energy. Students need awareness and access towards being able to consider career opportunities in these emerging fields.

However, while AI brings transformative possibilities, it also presents challenges related to job displacement, privacy concerns, bias and discrimination, and the potential for inequality. It’s essential for educational institutions, policymakers, and society at large to address these concerns and mitigate the potential negative effects of AI in both education and the workforce moving forward. This involves responsible AI development, regulations to protect privacy and prevent bias, efforts to bridge digital divides, and a continued emphasis on the importance of human skills alongside technological skills in the education system. Students will need to develop and engage a growth mindset, adaptability, digital literacy, ethical awareness, and a commitment to lifelong learning if there are to thrive in a future shaped by AI. It will be crucial for educational institutions, policymakers, and society as a whole to proactively address these present and coming challenges responsibly and ensure that AI is used equitably and ethically in education and the workforce, to ensure a more positive and inclusive future for our students.

While AI offers many benefits in education and the future of work, there are also potential negative effects that will need to considered:

  • Job Displacement: One of the most significant concerns, which has been on the horizon for years, is the potential for AI and automation to replace certain jobs, and being aware of which jobs where this displacement may occur. For which we’ve seen to be particularly focused, in our current context, in industries where routine tasks can be easily automated. Students may need to prepare for a job market that has shifted due to automation.
  • Inequality: AI may exacerbate educational and economic inequalities, across the world of work. Students with access to advanced AI tools and resources may have a significant advantage over those who do not, leading to a digital divide, if not alleviated, may become expansive over time.
  • Loss of Privacy: The use of AI in education and the workplace has and may continue raise deep concerns about data privacy. Students’ personal data may be collected and used in ways that they are not fully aware of or comfortable with, raising ethical questions about consent and data security moving forward.
  • Bias and Discrimination: AI systems can inherit and propagate biases present in their training data fed into their systems. If not carefully designed and monitored, these biases can lead to unfair treatment and discrimination in education and employment. Students may face biased AI systems in assessments, evaluations, or hiring processes.
  • Depersonalization of Education: Over-reliance on AI in education can lead to a loss of the personal touch that human educators provide. This may impact the development of soft skills, emotional intelligence, connection, wellness, and the overall quality of the educational experience.
  • Disruption of Traditional Learning: Traditional education models may be disrupted by online and AI-driven platforms (which may even be necessary), possibly and potentially reducing the importance of physical schools and human teachers. This could have deep social and economic implications for communities.
  • Security Risks: As AI is integrated into educational and work environments, it becomes a potential target for cyberattacks. Education has become the fifth most targeted industry for data breachers, according to a recent report from Nord Security, with U.S. schools experiencing a sharp increase in hacks in recent years. Students may need to understand and mitigate these security risks.
  • Over-reliance on Technology: Students can and may become overly reliant on technology for learning, which could lead to a decreased ability to solve problems without technological assistance or to think critically and creatively, which are current capacities and competencies seen as important for today’s workforce.
  • Emotional and Mental Health Issues: Overexposure to AI-driven digital interfaces, virtual learning environments, and social media can (and have been shown to) contribute to mental health issues, such as anxiety and social isolation among students. In this year, several school districts sued Meta and other social media companies over the harm their products allegedly levy down upon the health and well-being of students.
  • Educational Gaps: Access to AI-powered educational tools and technologies may not be uniform, leading to educational disparities. Students with limited access to these resources may, and most likely, in some profound ways fall behind, especially in response to the changing world of work.

Students will need to be proactive in developing a well-rounded skillset that includes technical, cognitive, and interpersonal abilities. As well as staying informed about the latest developments and trends in AI and related fields in order to make informed choices about their education and career paths. Especially in a time when many pathways forward fold into irrelevance in an accelerated and often unforeseen manner. As Yuval Noah Harari shares, “Most important of all will be the ability to deal with change, to learn new things and to preserve your mental balance in unfamiliar situations. In order to keep up with the world of 2050, you will need not merely to invent new ideas and products – you will above all need to reinvent yourself again and again.” Adapting to the future influenced by AI will require a mindset and a commitment to the four – bility’s of: agility, adaptability, flexibility, and learnability. These shifts in mindset will help students adapt, succeed, and contribute positively to a future shaped by AI and technology. Encouraging these attitudes and values will prepare them to thrive in a non-obvious future and ever-changing world.

“They assumed that as long as we give students lots of data and a modicum of freedom, the students will create their own picture of the world, and even if this generation fails to synthesize all the data into a coherent and meaningful story of the world, there will be plenty of time to construct a good synthesis in the future. We have now run out of time. The decisions we will take in the next few decades will shape the future of life itself, and we can take these decisions based only on our present world view. If this generation lacks a comprehensive view of the cosmos, the future of life will be decided at random.” – Yuval Noah Harari via On What the Year 2050 has in Store for Humankind

The Transformative Power of Stories: Catalysts of and for Systems Change

“Story has many different qualities that make it useful for the work of systems change. It’s a direct route to our emotions, and therefore important to decision-making. It creates meaning out of patterns. It coheres communities. It engenders empathy across difference. It enables the possible to feel probable in ways our rational minds can’t comprehend. When it comes to changing the values, mindsets, rules, and goals of a system, story is foundational.” -Ella Saltmarshe via Using Story to Change Systems (SSIR)

Stories have held a unique place in the human experience since the dawn of time. They are more than just words; they are windows into our shared humanity, repositories of culture, and catalysts for change. In a world characterized by complex and interconnected challenges, creating meaningful and lasting systems change often feels like an insurmountable task. Whether it’s addressing environmental sustainability, social justice, or education reform, effecting systemic change can feel like an insurmountable task. However, beneath the surface of these complex systems and seemingly impenetrable structures lies a powerful and potent tool for driving change that can inspire, mobilize, and ultimately reshape the world around us: stories. 

Stories are powerful tools of communication, memory, and persuasion. They’ve played a pivotal role in human societies for centuries, serving as a means to pass down knowledge, connect with one another, and influence decision-making. Stories help us make sense of the world and our place within it, transcending mere data or facts. As Hannah Arendt shares in Stories for Systems Change: Insights from the Field, “Storytelling reveals meaning without committing the error of defining it.”

Stories have been fundamental to human communication throughout the ages. They serve as a means of passing down knowledge, creating connections, and influencing our thoughts and behaviors. Stories hold the power to transform systems by awakening empathy, raising awareness, inspiring action, and fostering dialogue. Whether addressing climate change, social justice, or public health, stories provide a bridge between complex systems and the individuals they impact. In the vast tapestry of human existence, stories are the threads that weave us together. Stories transcend boundaries and connect people on a profound level, serving as vessels of empathy and understanding. They are not just words on a page or scenes on a screen; they are conduits of emotion and shared experiences. By sharing stories that illuminate the need for change and the potential for transformation, we can be catalysts for positive systems change in our interconnected world.

However, we also know that our world is inundated with many complex, adaptive, and often intractable challenges and problems that reside within our systems, and in many ways, they seem to be growing and expanding in an often exponential manner. So, before we delve into how stories can serve as positive catalysts for systems change, let’s take a look at some of the ways that systems change can be and remain a difficult endeavor to both challenge and change:

  • Inertia and Resistance to Change: One of the primary reasons systemic change is difficult is the inertia of existing systems. Institutions, organizations, polices, and even social norms have a strong tendency to maintain and entrench in the status quo. People will even resist change, even if it’s for the greater good, because it can be disruptive and uncertain. For that reason, this resistance can serve as a significant and substantial barrier and obstacle to systemic change.
  • Complex Interconnectedness: We all know that systems are intricate, often complex, and interconnected. Systems thinkers often remind us that changing one part of a system can have unintended and often consequential impacts on other parts of the system. It is this complexity that makes work of systems change challenging, as we are unable to predict the outcome of changes, no matter the amount of planning and analysis.
  • Lack of Vision and Leadership: Leaders who can envision and drive systemic change will always be critical to any change initiative. However, very often the scarcity of this leadership can make it difficult, especially in creating and engaging transformative thinking and ideas that people, organizations and institutions can rally behind. For those leaders that can engage this work, there is a plethora of resistance and opposition that often has to be overcome, requiring deep levels of resilience.
  • Short-Term Thinking vs Long-Term Goals: Our organizations, institutions, and even society often favors short-term gains and immediate gratification over long-term planning and goals (which is why many believe is the reason for facing the systemic and societal challenges we are currently facing today). This misalignment of how we look at short-term gains over long-term goals can make systemic change and transformation a very difficult prospect to entertain and engage with any type of impact.
  • Diverse Stakeholders and Interests: Systemic change often involves and necessitates a multiplicity of stakeholders, who often have a diverse array of interests. Finding common ground, consensus, and ultimately shared understandings and goals can serve as a Herculean task for any leader and organization, especially when there is prioritization of individual concerns over collective solutions. 
  • Cultural and Behavioral Factors: Cultural norms and human behavior play a role in systemic issues, meaning that changing deeply ingrained behaviors and beliefs can be a significant challenge, as it may require substantial and extensive education (unlearning/learning) and social change efforts.
  • Resource Constraints: While if often sits in the background of many a change initiative or transformative movement, any systemic shift most likely will require a variety, and often substantial resources, from human to financial. Awareness of these limitations and constraints, will build understanding of the development and implementation struggles that may be encountered in any systemic change process. 
  • Lack of Data and Evidence: In some cases, systemic change may require a solid empirical foundation to convince many stakeholders and policymakers regarding the issues that exist, the challenges that need to be faced, as well as the need for change. The absence of sufficient data or evidence supporting or highlighting the need for change and hinder some and/or all progress.
  • Political and Bureaucratic Hurdles: Political systems and bureaucratic “red tape” can serve as major roadblocks to systemic change, especially as policies and regulations may need to be changed to accommodate new approaches. Navigating the political landscape can be a slow and frustrating, but necessary process.
  • Unintended Consequences: Even well-intentioned systemic changes, no matter the amount of consideration, analysis and data, can lead to unforeseen and negative consequences. These unintended side effects of engaging change can erode and derail the support for change, or complicate the process moving forward.
  • Time and Patience: While we often don’t want to face it, systemic change is often a long and arduous process. It requires persistence, resilience, patience, and a commitment to seeing the change through even when faced with obstacles, challenges, and setbacks.

When it comes to systems change, stories play a pivotal role and critical function in several ways. As Sam Rye adds in Storytelling for Systems Change: Insights from the Field, “Stories play different roles at different levels of the system – stories both support systems to change, and also shine a light on the change. In other words, stories can be used to change the system; as well to evaluate, understand, and showcase the change that is occurring.” Stories hole a unique place in the human experience, because they serve as more than just words; rather, they are windows that provide us glimpses into our shared humanity, they can be repositories of culture, and even catalysts for change in our systems and society. Here are some examples of stories play a part in systems change:

  • Inspiration: Stories have the ability to inspire people by showcasing the potential for creating and engaging positive change. Narratives about individuals or communities overcoming adversity, coming up with creative and innovative solutions, or envisioning a better future can inspire hope and ignite a sense of possibility within individuals and in communities.
  • Humanization: Stories make complex issues relatable, understandable, and human. By telling the stories of those affected by a particular system, issue, or challenge, we can engage and create empathy and connect on a much more personal level. The humanizing essence of stories is essential in mobilizing support and engagement in and for change and transformation.
  • Awareness: Stories can create and raise awareness about the systemic issues that we need to address. By shining a light on problems, issues, challenges, injustices, and inequalities that might otherwise remain hidden or unnoticed, stories create awareness for improvement and change.
  • Advocacy: When people are moved by a story, they are more likely to take action. It is in this willingness and ability to act, that change actually occurs.
  • Fostering Dialogue and Engagement: Stories can be the catalyst for change conversations towards continuous improvement about and for the systems that surround and govern our lives, both personally and professionally. Stories prompt discussion, debate, and the critical thinking and considerations that lead us into shared understandings and possible and potential shared solutions to our systemic issues and challenges.
  • Encouraging Innovation: Stories spark innovation by igniting our imagination. They inspire us to think different, to pursue new possibilities, and to find creative solutions to complex problems. Stories engage us in possibility and futures thinking.

And on an even bigger level and scale, stories can have effect and impact on systems change and transformation in these following areas:

  • Challenging the Status Quo: Stories have the potential to challenge existing norms and change systems that perpetuate inefficiency, inequality, or injustice. By exposing the hidden flaws and intractable challenges that reside within systems, and thereby highlighting the experiences of those marginalized by those systems issues, as well as flaws in our societal systems, leads to opportunities to drive systemic change and transformation, encouraging us to rethink and reshape the world for the better.
  • Policy Impact: Stories have the ability to influence policymakers and decision-makers. A personal story can make the abstract concrete, driving changes in legislation and policies. 
  • Cultural Shifts: Stories can drive cultural shifts that lead to systemic change. Narratives that change societal norms and expectations can pave the way for more inclusive and equitable systems.

By sharing stories that illuminate the need for change and the potential for transformation, we can be catalysts for positive systems change, especially in our interconnected world, or as Thomas Friedman calls, our “hyper-connected” world. Or as Ella Saltmarshe puts forth in Using Story for Systems Change, “Story engenders empathy. It is the best tool we have for understanding what it must feel like to be someone else. Systems change frequently involves collaboration across difference, bringing together actors with very different positions to re-envision the goals of a system and to change it.”  Knowing that stories can play an integral part in systems change, let’s look here at how we can add some practical steps for the use of stories as catalysts for systems change:

  • Identify Compelling Narratives: Seek out and amplify compelling stories that highlight the issues and or challenges you are addressing within the system, as well as positive action and work that resides within these systems. These personal stories, narratives, and testimonials can be incredibly powerful catalysts for action that leads to change and transformation.
  • Leverage Multiple Media: Stories can be shared through various media, and determining what mediums will best reach your audience most effectively is a vital and important part of getting stories broadcast in ways that they are most likely to be shared and heard.
  • Engage with Diverse Voices: Ensure that a diverse range of voices and experiences are represented and included in the stories that are shared. Ultimately, this will create a broader and more inclusive understanding of the system’s impact through the lens of those who are sharing their stories.
  • Connect to Solutions: Stories should not only illustrate the problem(s) and or challenge(s) being faced, but also offer potential solutions. By highlighting stories of creativity, innovation and change, it can motivate people to take action moving forward.
  • Build Communities: Stories can foster a sense of connection and community among those affected by these systemic problems or challenges being faced, allowing for communities to come together and become powerful advocates for problem solving and positive change.

In the end, or as should we say in moving forward, remember these three concepts for the use of stories and storytelling for and towards systems change…

Stories connect us, stories are memorable, and stories create change. Let’s look at how:

Stories Connect Us…

  • Empathy and Understanding: Stories are empathic bridges that allow us to step into the shoes of others, seeing from their eyes, from their perspective and lens. Which means, through a well-told story, we can experience the joy, sorrow, and struggles of others, fostering opportunity for a deeper and even shared understanding of diverse perspectives.
  • Universal Appeal: Stories are universal. Regardless of our background, language, or culture, we ALL relate to stories. Whether it’s a tale of love, adventure, or overcoming adversity, stories have a way of speaking to the human condition. 
  • Shared Experiences: Stories remind us of our shared experiences and emotions, of our humanness. Stories have the ability to convey universal truths that can connect us, transcending borders, cultures, and languages in positive and powerful ways.
  • A Shared Language: Stories provide a shared language for people to communicate and express complex ideas, emotions, and experiences. They bridge gaps between individuals who may have different backgrounds or worldviews.
  • Cultural Transmission and Exchange: Through stories, we gain insights into the traditions, values, and histories of different cultures. Stories pass down the collective wisdom and heritage of our cultures and ensure that traditions, values, and history are carried forward through generations. This cross-cultural exchange helps us appreciate our diversity while recognizing our shared humanity.

Stories Are Memorable…

  • Emotional Resonance: Stories evoke emotions (which is often missing in how we transmit and share information and data), and it is a well-known fact that we remember emotionally charged experiences better when they are shared through stories. The emotional engagement stories provide makes them more memorable to us, providing greater opportunity for systems change and transformation.
  • Narrative Structure: As story-telling companies such as Pixar would and have told us, stories have a natural structure that aids memory retention. They typically have a beginning, a middle, and an end, which makes them easier to recall and remember. It is that structure and recall and remember-ability that makes stories and storytelling such a force for change.
  • Contextual Understanding: Stories provide context for information. We remember data better when it’s embedded in a narrative or story, giving it a feeling of greater relevance and meaning.

Stories Create Change…

  • Changing Minds: Stories have the power to change minds and hearts. Stories can challenge prejudices, break down stereotypes, and open people up to new perspectives, which makes them incredibly impactful as part of any change initiative or transformative movement.
  • Cultural Shifts: Stories often drive cultural shifts, challenging long-standing norms, and inspiring society to embrace new values, which is vital in leading in systemic change or transformative movement.
  • Resilience and Hope: Stories of resilience and hope have the power to inspire individuals, organizations, communities, and even society, during times of great difficulty and adversity. Stories help us to find the strength to overcome the challenges.
  • Community Building: Stories bring people together to form communities bound by shared values and aspirations. Many of these communities arise from the collective impact of a story, providing a platform for like-minded individuals to unite and create change.
  • Inspiration and Innovation: Stories inspire us to dream, to envision a better future, and to innovate. Stories overcoming adversity motivate people to push the boundaries of what’s possible.

And in the end, stories have the ability to Shape the Future…

  • Envisioning Tomorrow: Stories are not just a reflection of the past and present; they are powerful tools for envisioning the future. 
  • Legacies: Stories leave legacies, shaping the way history is remembered and passed down. Stories contribute to the collective narrative of an organization, a community, society, and their evolution moving forward. 

Stories hold the power to transform systems by awakening empathy, raising awareness, inspiring action, and fostering and encouraging dialogue. By sharing stories that illuminate the need for change and the potential for transformation, we can be catalysts for positive systems change in our interconnected (hyper-connected) world. By harnessing the power of stories and storytelling, we can work together to reshape our systems for better, more possible, more inclusive, and equitable futures, by bridging the gaps that divide us in and effort to unite in a shared quest for positive change.

Stories are not just narratives; they are conduits of emotion, empathy, and change. Their power to connect us, inspire us, and shape the world around us is unparalleled. Whether it’s the stirring tale of a hero’s journey, a personal narrative of triumph over adversity, or a vision of a better future, stories are the key to understanding our past, embracing the present, and forging the path to a brighter tomorrow. In an ever-changing world, the enduring power of stories remains a beacon of hope and transformation.

“Sharing individual stories about a system can help people develop new perspectives on the system they share. It’s like the story of the blind men and the elephant. Everyone only sees their part of an elephant. They see the individual stories they tell themselves about what’s true. Sharing these helps them create a more expanded and accurate collective narrative. It enables them to develop a shared picture of reality.” -Ella Saltmarshe via Using Story to Change Systems

Navigating The AI Revolution In Education: Moving Beyond The Classroom (Part 1)

“We are in a unique situation in human history when, for the first time, we have no idea what the job market will look like in 20 or 30 years. That was never before the case in history.” -Yuval Noah Harari

Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs to and has inevitably transcended the confines of traditional classrooms and learning conversations. It has become a multifaceted force influencing ethics, skills, the future of work, regulations, policy, privacy, equity, the economy, and even the need to engage deeper levels of foresight moving forward. Educators and the education system must begin to grapple with the broader implications of AI, including generative AI, as our current thinking and conversations around AI are often extremely constrained and limited in our considerations of how AI has and will have effect on education moving forward. AI, as well as automation, has been infiltrating and transforming our societal landscape, both personally and professionally, far before the arrival of the pandemic, or the introduction of generative AI and tools like ChatGPT, Bard, DALL-E, etc., but much of society was not truly taking notice, including education. It was not until AI tools such as were just mentioned were put into our hands and we were able to begin to see the exponential expansiveness of what is and might be possible, that it really got a hold of our attention and focus. Personal access ignited our awareness, making it a digital game changer almost overnight from most of our societal perspective, reigniting our considerations of what AI can and will do, both in the present and in the future.

Shifting our Perspective: Taking a Bigger and More Holistic Lens Towards AI

AI, especially generative AI, has increased our awareness of AI across society. While we often discuss AI in terms of augmenting humans in the future of work, we also have to be aware that it is replacing jobs. According to McKinsey & Co from June of 2023, there are considerations that generative AI would be able to automate 60% to 70% of employee workloads (and while it still might be in its infancy, we are seeing its use explode across the landscape of work). OpenAI, as the creator of ChatGPT, has shared estimates, that across 80% of the U.S. workforce, could possibly have 10% or more of their jobs affected AI and LLMs such as ChatGPT. Beyond the augmenting, ups killing and reskilling of work, data from Challenger, Gray and Christmas reports that AI is responsible for 4,000 cuts made in May 2023, as reported by Tech Accelerator. Goldman Sachs reported in 2023 that AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs. Whether AI is working alongside or replacing humans, we have to have the awareness that AI will change the future of work landscape exponentially, necessitating new understandings, new learnings, new skills, and new types of work. However, this is just the tip of iceberg, as AI is still really in its infancy and we are still quite limited on how far its capabilities will expand and extend. Which means that the more educators and education can apply a more holistic lens to AI and its ramifications and being proactive through foresight frameworks and systems thinking, the more aware we can be in preparing our students and our learning communities for the many scenarios and futures that may emerge from AI-infused future.

The Wild West: Policy and Practice

As UNESCO’s paper AI and Education: Guidance for Policy-Makers shares, “It starts with the essentials of AI: definitions, techniques and technologies. it continues with a detailed analysis of the emerging trends and implications of AI for teaching and learning, including how we can ensure the ethical, inclusive and equitable use of AI in education, how education can prepare humans to live and work with AI, and how AI can be applied to enhance education.” However, in many ways, AI is moving much faster than policy and regulation can often keep up with, which makes it an even more difficult for educators to make decisions around policy and regulations with these new tools and technologies. Especially in a space where its growth is seen to be exponential moving forward. Or as UNESCO reminds us regarding its exponential growth, “AI in education is expected to be worth $6 billion by 2024.” Which means, especially in today’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments, the speed at which change and technology is approaching our organizations will not only make it more difficult for policy-makers, but more imperative as AI integrates deeper and wider into and across our systems. As Smith and Neupane share in UNESCO’s paper, “If we continue blindly forward, we should expect to see increased inequality alongside economic disruption, social unrest, and in some cases, political instability, with the technologically disadvantaged and underrepresented faring the worst.”

When we are able to balance policy, practice, engagement, safety, and privacy, alongside access and agency, we are better able to create the environment where learning and progress remain at the forefront, while providing that access in a safe and secure environment. It is in these spaces that we approach these changes from a much more proactive stance, guiding decisions in the present, while providing anticipation and foresight for what lays down the road and on the horizon. As UNESCO puts forth in its paper AI and Education: Guidance for Policy-Makers, “The primary purpose of applying AI in education should be to enhance learning, enabling every learner to develop their individual potential, which policies should reflect and support. However, if countries are to meet these challenges, policies need to go beyond the application of AI in educational contexts, to include all the connections between AI and education. In particular, this means teaching how AI works and how it might be created, and about the wider implications that AI has for local and global society.

Rethinking Education

AI has the potential to transform the very essence of education and how society perceives it, which we are already seeing across our educational environments. We must be prepared for an educational landscape tomorrow, that may differ significantly from what we know today, driven by AI’s capabilities and changing and shifting societal needs. Especially in response to the changes that AI will initiate across society. The AI revolution and digital disruption in education is not merely a passing fancy or benign conversation; it’s a force multiplier that may engage each of us on a transformational journey. Educators, policymakers, and institutions must navigate this landscape thoughtfully and responsibly. Foresight, adaptability, and a commitment to ethical AI use will be crucial as we prepare for an AI-driven future that holds both promise and challenges for education. It’s not a matter of if AI will disrupt education but how we embrace and integrate it to enhance learning and prepare future generations for the world that awaits them.

“In our environment of AI acceleration and uncertainty, we need education systems that help our societies construct ideas about what AI is and should be, what we want to do with it, and where we want to construct guardrails and draw red lines. Too often we only ask how a new technology will change education. A more interesting question is: How will education shape our reception and steer the integration of new technology – both technology that is here today and technology that remains on the horizon? Our education systems can define a trajectory and establish norms for how we understand world-changing technology – and, by extension, how we allow it to influence us and our world.” -Stefania Giannini via Generative AI and the Future of Education

Braiding Our VUCA And BANI Worlds: Bridging Transitions For A Non-Obvious Future

“Something massive and potentially overwhelming is happening. All of our systems, from global webs of trade and information to the personal connections we have with our friends, families, and colleagues, all of these systems are changing, will have to change. Fundamentally. Thoroughly. Painfully, at times. It’s something that may need a new language to describe. It’s something that will definitely require a new way of thinking to explore.” -Jamais Cascio, Distinguished Fellow, Institute for the Future, Anthropologist, Futurist, and Author via Facing the Age of Chaos

While the acronym VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) originated in 1987, we often spent much more time throughout those span of years between then and now, in leadership situations considering, discussing, and planning, how to respond to, become more agile, and adapt more effectively, both organizationally and individually, to times when VUCA seized and infiltrated our environments with a stronger grasp and a deeper sense of determination and diligence.

And while our VUCA environments were already ramping up and extending themselves pre-COVID, the panruption experienced through COVID did nothing more than to heighten our sense of the VUCA World we were now experiencing and living in, both organizationally and personally. Everything around us has become exponentially more complex, we struggle to initiate even the simplest of decisions due to the uncertainty of next steps, and our understanding and considerations of and for the future are now shrouded in a deep fog of ambiguity (not that we were able to predict the future previously, it has just become much more difficult to see the lights at the end of the tunnel in recent times).

However, if that is not enough, we are even finding that the rising complexity of current times are making the acronym VUCA, while still aptly descriptive of current times and context, to now be considered somewhat insufficient for the conditions and the nature of and emerging challenges we are facing, both individually and organizationally.

For many, the introduction of this “new” acronym or term is seen as a transition to the radical changes of recent times, especially as the digital disruption has brought forth new challenges, from cyber threats, evolving abilities of automation and artificial intelligence, to even how social media is playing a part in the acceleration of and turbulence of the very nature of change itself.

As many would confirm, it is no longer enough to become both agile and adaptive, as the emerging challenges we are facing will require new thinking, new ideas, new approaches, and new strategies to our already straining and often failing frameworks and systems.

So, while many see this as a point of transition, it may be better seen as a braiding of the terms or acronyms (frameworks), as both still remain deeply relevant to the current and emerging problems and challenges we see rising up across our societal systems.

While many of us are familiar with the term VUCA, it seems as if we will also need to begin to familiarize ourselves with this new term, BANI. A term or framework which is often associated with futurist Jamais Cascio, who deepens our understanding of the acronym and need for this framework in his article, Facing the Age of Chaos. In which he shares that, “It’s hard to see the big picture when everything insists on coloring outside the lines.” For which he continues, “BANI is a framework to articulate the increasingly commonplace situations in which simple volatility or complexity are insufficient lenses through which to understand what’s taking place. Situations in which conditions aren’t simple unstable, they’re chaotic. In which outcomes aren’t simply hard to foresee, they’re completely unpredictable. Or, to use the particular language of these frameworks, situations where what happens isn’t simply ambiguous, it’s incomprehensible.”

As with any framework, it is in finding ways to utilize them to help us thrive and be more effective, both individually and organizationally, towards how the world is changing and our response to those changes, which makes them most useful. Just as VUCA has pillars, Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity, we find, although different, the BANI acronym has its own four pillars, Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible.

So, in considering these two acronyms, let’s dig a bit deeper here towards determining how these two frameworks can braid together in considering how we view the complexity of today’s worlds, as well as how those pillars transition between one another:

  • Volatility and Brittle – while the Volatility of VUCA refers to the accelerating speed, turbulence and magnitude of change; the Brittle of BANI emphasizes the increasing fragile nature and brittleness of our systems. Which is especially important as we consider how interconnected and interdependent our organizations and systems have become in today’s hyper-connected world. Making our organizations and systems much more vulnerable to disruptions and how even small shocks can have cascading effects that lead to even more significant consequences.

In Jamais Cascio’s talk for the Prestigio Leadership Forum in Columbia, he shares supports for each of the pillars of the BANI Framework in helping us understand how to better thrive in a turbulent and BANI world (Brittle): “Brittle systems need resilience, the capacity of a system, or institution, or person, to withstand sudden shocks. To be flexible rather than brittle. System resilience often means building up resources as a cushion for the unexpected.”

  • Uncertainty and Anxious – the Uncertainty of VUCA denotes the lack of predictability or clear outcomes, especially in decision making and considerations of and for the future. As Reid Hoffman shares, the escalator that we relied on no longer works as it should, both for those trying to get off and those trying to get on. Whereas the Anxiety of BANI refers to the heightened sense of anxiety brought on by the rapid pace and turbulence of change that makes it even more difficult to accurately anticipate future events, causing greater levels of unease. As Cascio shares in Facing the Age of Chaos, “Our media environment seems perfectly designed to enhance anxiety. It stimulates us in a way that prods excitement and fear. The media presentation of information focuses on the immediate over the accurate. We are surrounded by what we might think of as malinformation. Malinformation is the crystallization of what triggers anxiety.”

In Jamais Cascio’s talk for the Prestigio Leadership Forum in Columbia, he shares supports for each of the pillars of the BANI Framework in helping us understand how to better thrive in a turbulent and BANI world (Anxious): “Anxiety-inducing systems need empathy, the recognition and acknowledgement of the negative human effects of a broken or chaotic system. In its simplest form, it’s the willingness to be kind and forgiving — both to others and to oneself.”

  • Complexity and Nonlinear – the Complexity of VUCA refers to the intricate systems, interactions, and interrelations in today’s world, especially as we move farther away from the need for leaders to attend to technical problems as much as the need to attend to adaptive challenges, especially as those problems move from the realm of the complicated to the complex, requiring a new lens for problem-solving. Whereas the Nonlinear dynamics of BANI emphasizes the nonlinear nature of the challenges we are and will be facing, which is increasing the unpredictability we are facing and how those nonlinear effects can have significant effect on individuals, our organizations and the world around us, which is leading to more and more unexpected outcomes. As Cascio puts forth in Facing the Age of Chaos, In a nonlinear world, results of actions taken, or not taken, can end up being wildly out of balance. Small decisions end up with massive consequences, good or bad.”

In Jamais Cascio’s talk for the Prestigio Leadership Forum in Columbia, he shares supports for each of the pillars of the BANI Framework in helping us understand how to better thrive in a turbulent and BANI world (Nonlinear): “Nonlinear systems need improvisation, the ability to adapt quickly to unexpected changes and developments. To be creative under pressure. Improvisation requires that people not be restricted to just pre-determined choices.”

  • Ambiguity and Incomprehensible – the Ambiguity of VUCA focuses on the lack of clarity or understanding that is facing so many of today’s leaders and organizations. While the Incomprehensibility of BANI describes our current context and environment and how rapid technological advancements, information overload, and the growing complexity of today’s global challenges are making it increasingly difficult and challenging to comprehend and grasp the full picture. As Cascio shares in Facing the Age of Chaos, We witness events and decisions that seem illogical or senseless, whether because the origins are too long ago, or too unspeakable, or just too absurd. “Why did they do that?” “How did that happen?” We try to find answers but the answers don’t make sense. Moreover, additional information is no guarantee of improved understanding.”

In Jamais Cascio’s talk for the Prestigio Leadership Forum in Columbia, he shares supports for each of the pillars of the BANI Framework in helping us understand how to better thrive in a turbulent and BANI world (Incomprehensible): “Incomprehensible systems need intuition, listening to our brain’s ability to recognize hidden connections, or when something doesn’t feel right, even when everything seems okay.”

Which means, for VUCA, leaders should focus on developing agility, adaptability and flexibility into their organizations. This means anticipating and responding to changes quickly, which necessitates agility, and building flexibility into their plans, which requires deeper levels of adaptability. Which will also require leaders to foster a culture of innovation that encourages experimentation, risk taking, and learning from failure. Leaders will also need to recognize the value of diversity and complexity in their organizations, and work to build effective teams with environments of psychological safety that can create the space to determine how to navigate these complex challenges.

For BANI, leaders will need to focus on building resilience, openness and transparency into their organizations. This means investing in systems that can withstand stress and recover quickly from the growing levels of internal and external disruptions. As well as fostering a culture of transparency and trust that empowers employees and their partners or stakeholders with the clarity and foresight to make more informed decisions, alongside adopting an agile approach to innovation that enables leaders, teams and organizations to quickly test and refine new ideas.

Ultimately, the most important thing for a leader to know about VUCA and BANI is that they are not just acronyms for describing our current context, but valuable frameworks that can support leaders in determining how to navigate the complex and unpredictable landscape of both the present, and the future. By deepening understanding of these frameworks, realizing what is emerging and the context that you find yourself in individually and organizationally, while still taking action to prepare for the future, leaders can create organizational environments, teams, and individuals  that are far better equipped to lean in and thrive in an uncertain and non-obvious world.

Together, these frameworks provide leaders with a comprehensive toolkit for managing change and preparing for the future. They highlight the need for leaders to become more adaptable, agile, focused on the need for ongoing learning, while accessing creativity and imagination as strategic resource, so that they are able to build organizations that can navigate the complex, fluctuating, and unknown landscapes of the emerging future. By understanding the key elements of VUCA and BANI, leaders can develop the thinking, ideas, and strategies that enable them to capitalize on these emerging trends and opportunities, while mitigating the inherent risks, that will allow for the creation of more adaptive, agile, and even sustainable organizations and systems moving forward.

“It’s not so much that we’re afraid of change or so in love with the old ways, but it’s that place in between that we fear…It’s like being between trapezes. It’s Linus when his blanket is in the dryer. There’s nothing to hold on to.” -via Marilyn Ferguson, American Futurist

 

 

Strategically Using Foresight To Audit Our Organizational Landscape

“This present moment used to be the unimaginable future.” -Stewart Brand via The Clock of the Long Now

Things have shifted in some very profound ways over the last few years, which are not blips to just be taken lightly. Furthermore, the speed of change is accelerating in some turbulent, and even awe-inspiring ways. We continue to see, both in our leadership and organizations, an aggressive increase in adaptive challenges as compared to technical problems. We also are seeing, in conjunction with the rise of adaptive challenges, an organizational repositioning from the complicated to the complex, requiring new mindsets and strategies in how we approach these growing dilemmas. And to make these challenges even more formidable, very often our context, as well as our times, is facing increasing polarization, in a time when communication and collaboration in many ways, are needed most.

Then to make matters more interesting, throw on top of that bundle, we’ve been witness to the Great Resignation, growing issues associated with Climate Change, and astounding societal shocks from the Digital Disruption. Not to speak of the growing concerns over the uncertainties we have to consider regarding the future of work, from what automation will be able to deliver as well as take away, and how quickly Artificial Intelligence is making incredible, and even concerning inroads into our professional and personal lives.

In many ways, if we were engaging in scenarios or scenario planning (a process to create considerations/narratives regarding an uncertain world by identifying assumptions for the future and engaging the organization and stakeholders in considering how they might respond) for what the future might be like, going back just fifteen, twenty or even thirty years ago, and were able to aptly postulate a scenario that described the future we are currently living in and experiencing today, it would have been, for most parts, considered inconceivable, or far-fetched at best. The thinking required to create that scenario would have required a deep sense of imagination.

And if you think that it’s difficult for adults currently dealing with these growing adaptive challenges and dilemmas we are facing, consider how much more challenging it is for students in today’s volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environments trying to find and see lights at the end of their futures tunnel? How are they considering the future with a sense of positivity and hope, not only for themselves, but for the world around them? And if that is not enough, how can and do they not only traverse this very uncertain and ambiguous future, but learn how to approach the future with some semblance and sense of anticipation? Of being able to see themselves in that future from a perspective and lens that provides promises of hope, expectations and well-being.

Which means that we not only need to support our students and stakeholders, but our educators and educational organizations in articulating visions that help them begin to anticipate the future. To seek out new narratives for the future, without being seduced by visions and narratives that have outlived their time and relevance, by stories that are no longer supportive of a world that has and continues to shift and change in some dynamic and exponential ways. In the midst of all these difficulties and challenges we are facing, we have to begin to ask, how do reframe our current context towards processes, strategies, and mindsets that allow us to find new and energizing possibilities and opportunities in the midst of these dilemmas and challenges?

Which means that we now have to begin to consider concepts such as imagination to be both an individual asset and organizational resource in planning and preparing for the variety of futures we possibly see emerging in the future.

While we will never be able to predict the future, having the curiosity and imagination to begin to create, construct and plan for a variety of scenarios for the future will necessitate not only a rigorous use of foresight in scanning the horizon for weak and strong signals of what is emerging, but in engaging the imagination necessary what many would see as the inconceivable, unimaginable, or impossible.

While it doesn’t take much cognitive capacity to plan scenarios for the predictable or probable futures that we see coming (which feeds into our internal want and reliance on certainty), it does necessitate increasing our cognitive bandwidth to engage in futures thinking about scenarios that we are yet to even consider or entertain (allowing us to lean into uncertainty and ambiguity towards possible futures that may emerge) as possibilities.

Or as futurist Dr. Amy Zalman puts forth in the article Maxmizing the Power of Strategic Foresight, “The individual who invests time in learning how to think like a futurist emerges with an appreciation for the cognitive barriers faced by the human brain when it attempts to envision the future and will be well-practiced in holistic, synthetic, analytic, and creative ways of thinking. Organizations that adopt foresight practices to help them identify trends at an early stage and adapt or innovate to leverage those trends are in stronger competitive positions than those that do not.”

Which is incredibly important, that ability to appreciate the difficulty of engaging in, “rigorous” foresight and imagination towards the future. As neuroscience reminds us that the same area of the brain that can consider the future, is also the same area that pulls up and recalls the past. Which can and does make future thinking a difficult proposition, especially when it requires us to move past those often entrenched mental models and maps of how we view and consider the world, from what is was, to what it is, and what we think it can be.

Or as Dr. Zalman states, “One of the key tenets of foresight is that it is imperative to explore not only the most likely future but also a range of possible futures.” Which is a key tenet of foresight and scenarios, that ability to engage a “range” of possible futures. Otherwise, leaders and organizations tend to ignore or miss what is emerging across the organizational or societal landscape that may have bearing on their future. Especially when that emergence and those signals disrupt their mental models and maps of how they view and consider the world and the future it is heading towards.

Very often, when we move into the land of new possibilities where linearity and certainty gives way to uncertainty and ambiguity, both leaders and organizations can disassociate themselves from those ‘considerations’ and treat them as less than ‘real’ possibilities or future fantasies. Which can not only limit, but make the future really difficult to imagine beyond current circumstances.

As Hardin Tibbs shares in Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios and Strategy, “Organizations tend to have an implicit theory of the future, even if they have not spent time consciously developing one. This existing “mental map” can be highly resistant to change, and must be acknowledged and articulated, before they begin to move to new and expanded levels of thinking.” Which both narrows and limits our considerations for the futures that we are able to consider. In many ways, both leaders and organizations tend to act and maneuver was if we are marching towards the same predetermined future that we all acknowledge. Which means, for both educators and our educational organizations to be able to provide visions and narratives that can elevate and consider more ‘possible’ futures for our students and stakeholders, it will necessitate uncovering and updating our mental models and maps that can and do keep us grounded in preconceived notions of what the future will look like and be. For which, futurist Sohail Inyatullah refers to as “used futures” (which he shares as those things that we keep doing but do not work but we continue to do or use), which can be and often are found to be pervasive in leadership and organizational thinking, even in the midst of these dynamic and exponential shifts and changes we are experiencing both organizationally and across all of society.

Meaning that today’s leaders are going to need to, as Ronald Heifetz and Marty Linksy put forth in A Survival Guide for Leaders, especially if we are going to become more proactive towards the future, of “getting off the dance floor and going to the balcony.” Towards helping our individuals, our leaders, and our organizations to better determine, “What’s really going on here?”

Otherwise, our considerations, our thinking, our ideas, our decisions, and even our scenarios of the future become limited by not only our current context, but where we find ourselves spending the majority of our time within our organizational landscapes. What we often don’t realize is not only how we spend our organizational time, but where we spend that time has great effect on our thinking, considerations, perspective, and decisions that are made within and across the organization. It’s that ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’ concept that we always hear being referenced. As Heifetz and Linksy share, “Taking a balcony perspective is extremely tough to do when you’re fiercely engaged down below, being pushed and pulled by the events and people around you – and doing some pushing and pulling of your own.”

Which means, especially as a leader, we have to find opportunity to spend time on the balcony. For the balcony is often where we gain greater awareness and understanding of the dance floor, and how we can then become much more strategic in how we move forward, as well as how we engage the thinking and decisions that will align and move us toward a more preferred destination.

Hardin Tibbs talks about this as from the idea of the “strategic landscape,” which he separates into four elements, which are:

  • The Star: which provides the guiding purpose for the organization
  • The Mountain: which provides the strategic objective of what we hope to achieve
  • The Chessboard: which is the strategic environment, which includes opportunities, potentials, issues, and challenges that lie ahead
  • The Self: which is our strategic identity which encompasses our history, culture, values, and attributes as a strategic player

These four elements are also supportive in considering the “dancefloor” and the “balcony” from Heifetz and Linksy, but take it a more layered consideration. As Hardin Tibbs is asking, in regards to the “strategic landscape,” of how we are not only considering, but auditing how much time we spend on the Chessboard or (dance floor) as opposed to time that is spent in the Mountains and the Stars (balcony). Tibbs reminds us of the importance of that Mountains and Stars (balcony) “vantage point” and what we gain from that vantage point, especially when our thinking, considerations and decisions are made from a higher perspective. Which is why the audit of where we spend our time becomes important, as the “vantage point” has influence and impact on how we think, the considerations we entertain, and the decisions we make as leaders and organizations. Meaning that the context of the Mountain and Stars (balcony) and the Chessboard (dance floor) can expand or constrain our organizational possibilities and visions, depending on where we spend most of our time. From which “vantage point” we are coming from in concern to those considerations.

So, if we spend an inordinate amount of time on the Chessboard (dance floor), it will be more and more difficult to not only create new organizational narratives and visions for the future, it will become more and more difficult to ascertain signals on the horizon, of what may be emerging, and how these new possibilities will have real impact on the future of the organization. Or as Tibbs lays out, “When we are open to auditing our time and where it is spent on the organizational landscape, that we begin to be more open with our mental models and maps, our assumptions, our understandings, where our time is spent and where, what vantage points we are considering when moving forward and how those vantage points have influence on how we think, the decisions we make, and the visions and narratives we create for the future.”

It is in this space of awareness that we move from the urgent to the transformational. Where new visions and narratives are discovered as we cognitively explore new possibilities for a myriad of futures to emerge, which comes from intentionally creating greater awareness and understandings of our context and organizational landscape, and where spend our time within it. It is here, in the Mountains and Stars (balcony) that we find ourselves better equipped to challenge our assumptions of what we determine possible for the future.

“All strategic thinking and planning requires some notions about the future – even if they remain at the level of unexamined assumptions.” -Hardin Tibbs via Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy

How Are We Preparing For The Futures We See Coming?

“It was such a lost learning experience, because the pandemic itself has been a great opportunity for students to figure out who they are and to question their assumptions about continuity, their ideas about identity, what it means to be a citizen and how to take care of the elderly. There’s so many beautiful questions hidden in this crisis that could have been woven into curricula to provide meaning to what we are going through. The issue is that education is all about planning and preparing students for certain markets and jobs, and only to a lesser extent about exploration. And by closing our eyes to the present, we end up being not prepared for anything. To bring education into the 21st century, we need to let go of that path dependency, and create more space for failures, pilots, experiments, and explorations.” -Loes Damhof, UNESCO Chair in Futures Literacy via Teaching Futures

In many ways, if feels as if we have worked very diligently to try and put the pandemic in our rear-view mirror, even at the risk of not learning the many lessons it has provoked and provided for us. We talk about a “new” normal, but that often serves as code for getting back as close as possible to some semblance of what we did or were doing pre-pandemic. To getting back to the “certainty” of the known. We talk about creating the individual and organizational capacity to lean into the rising complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity of these current times, while spending our time chasing the illusion of and assurance of certainty. We continue to probe at solving the expanding, and often unsolvable, dilemmas and adaptive challenges of our times with veneer, ready-made solutions, when we need to begin to focus on building the fortitude and capacity towards learning how to “manage” these challenges more effectively.

It often feels as if we are intent on trying to forget and put the pandemic behind us, rather than engaging in reflection upon and learning from the myriad of lessons that the struggles of what we’ve gone through have uncovered, projected, catalyzed, and/or has shown and unveiled to us over the last few years.

Maybe what we have to realize, is that in many ways, the pandemic has changed our image of the future. How we now think about it? How we consider it? How we picture and visualize it? Even how we determine our dreams, hopes, and possibilities of and for the future? While it is not always readily apparent to us, what we have come to recognize is that our post-pandemic image of the future is quite often challenging our pre-pandemic view of the future. And unfortunately, in this age of extreme busyness and accelerated change, we rarely have or take the time to intentionally engage in considerations of how, why, and what that means for us moving forward, both individually and organizationally.

Which engages the thought from Kees Van Der Heijden for us, both individually and organizationally, which he shares in his book Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, “The prime question to be addressed is whether the organization is well-equipped for the futures we can see coming?”

Which is a much deeper question than we probably consider upon first glance, of what is well-equipped and what do we see coming? How are we equipping ourselves individually and organizationally for these emerging futures? What competencies and capacities have we already built up, and what ones do we need to engage and expand? How are we rigorously scanning the horizon, both individually and organizationally to determine the weak and strong signals of what is coming? What kind of processes and systems do we have in place to sustain that work, decipher what those signals may mean for us individually and organizationally, and then have the internal and external network aptitude to spread that information to better prepare for the futures we see coming?

For which Epamindondas Christophilopoulos, the Head of Foresight and Tools at the Foundation for Research and Technology shares in What Is Futures Literacy and Why Is It Important? “We need to give people this skill to deal with a future full of uncertainties, and to emancipate them by helping them understand how we can anticipate and how we can use the future in the present to provide hope.” Which is effectively pushing us to move those concepts of – complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty – from where we’ve hidden them in the rear-view mirror, and to place them out in front of us, in full windshield view for us to see and confront head on. To putting them right out there, front and center of where we are heading towards, knowing that in today’s VUCA world, they will be traveling with us anyways. And to add, this “skill” that Christophilopoulos is referring to, is our capacity to become more comfortable with the future and our ability to then anticipate the future in a way that is more futures literate.

Which, especially in discussing literacies, is not often a term that we are familiar with or have heard of in reference to literacies. And yet, we live in a world where the term “literacy” is expanding beyond what we’ve previously considered in terms of literacy. There’s digital, cultural, financial, and social, just to name a few. As well as futures literacy…

As there is not just one way to think about the future, just as there is not just one future.

It is when we consider the future or futures from a literacy perspective, we can find ourselves more open to visualizing how we approach the future and “use” the future as something that can be cultivated and learned. It is something that we can build capacity with, both individually and collectively.

As Riel Miller, Head of Futures Literacy at UNESCO shares, “Futures literacy helps us understand how the future is created, how we imagine the future to be, and what the impact is of imagining the future? Our ability to anticipate future outcomes tends to shape our choices, our strategies, and our long-term plans.” To add, UNESCO puts forth, “Futures literacy is a capability. It is the skill that allows people to better understand the role of the future in what they see and do. Being futures literate empowers the imagination, enhances our ability to prepare, recover and invent as changes occur.” To which Riel Miller adds, “Futures literacy helps us to be more sophisticated in how we use the future as a lens. It is a way of opening our perception and allows us to anticipate. Which provides us another way into resilience. To negotiating shared meaning. As we need to be more sophisticated in how the future is used by us. Uncertainty is a resource, not something we can eradicate.”

All of which is incredibly important to our current context and times, especially for our educational and societal systems, as we consider the future that is coming at us. The way that we’ve considered how the world works have become murky myths that are challenging our long-held assumptions. Especially as many of the rites of passage, rituals of change, even our mental models and maps that have guided us in our lives and within our organizations, systems, and society for so long, are either being reframed or are seen as crumbling pillars falling all around us. All of which are creating greater levels of uncertainty, broader breadths of unknowns, especially in how we view, envision, and anticipate the future. As Riel Miller shared previously, this will require us, both individually and organizationally, “to be more sophisticated in how we use the future.” That “sophistication” becomes more valuable, vital and important as these coming societal shifts accelerate change, expand complexity and ambiguity across our societal landscapes, and instigating a plethora of growing instabilities within our systems, as both the weak and strong signals on the horizon of our future increases the myriad of unknowns and scenarios that we must consider facing in both the short- and long-term.

So, if we are going to be able to support our students, families, stakeholders, educators, and educational leaders to anticipate the future, to be open to emergence and novelty in those futures, to lean into the complexity and uncertainty of our current context and times, then we have to be able to not only stretch ourselves cognitively away from our need and assurance for certainty, but to see this as a creative moment. An opportunity for imagination and innovation to take the front seat, especially if our images, visions, and narratives for the future are to be more preferable in realizing our collective hopes, than giving into our often dystopian fears.

Thereby, allowing us to use the future as a vehicle to drive us towards better decisions in the present, by being more “sophisticated” in how we consider and use the future, we can create new and more preferable images of the future we want and are willing to strive for, allowing us to backwards map those images towards improving the thinking, actions and decisions we are making in the present, both as individuals and as organizations. For it is that anticipation of, supported by a willingness to discover, explore, and experiment, driven by our individual and collective imaginations, that we see that there is no “one” future, but a myriad and diversity of futures constantly emerging, and the more “sophisticated” we are in using the future, the more apt we are to move towards those preferable futures we imagine and envision.

It is in this space that we are able to ask questions, challenge our assumptions, and embrace the learning that lies in that chasm between our pre- and post-pandemic world. 

As the world changes, often in accelerated and in unanticipated ways, so do our considerations and assumptions, much of which are grounded in the past. Shifting our mental models and maps from the rear-view mirror to the windshield allows us to release thinking we’ve entrenched in a world that no longer exists, so we can begin to creatively confront the uncertain and unknown futures that now await us. And the more sophisticated we can be in that journey, the more open we will be to the emergence of the diversity of futures that lie down the road.

“If you feel that you’re approaching the future with fear, you have to come to understand where that fear comes from. We tend to have this inherent fear of uncertainty because we simply don’t like it, and not knowing can make us scared. Mind you, that holding on to one scenario, one image of the future, may give you security, but it’s a false sense of security. I think it’s important to see that uncertainty is a friend. It’s not something to be scared of or something to eliminate, it’s something to embrace. Not knowing means that there’s still a lot of opportunities. Always try to accept more than one idea of what the future could be, and remind yourself that it does not exist. So, whenever you’re confronted by this, ask yourself: Whose future is it, anyway?” -Loes Damhof, UNESCO Chair in Futures Literacy via Teaching Futures