Drenched In Awareness: Flat-Footed or Future-Facing?

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“Regardless of the industry or circumstances, one forecast has always been right throughout history: technology will advance, it will invariably intersect with other sources of change within society, and trends are the signposts showing us how changes will manifest in real life.”  -via Amy Webb The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream

The signals are all around us…

Dots that are swirling, orbiting, spinning, traveling all around our cognitive spaces; disparate dots just waiting to be connected in novel and new ways to move us forward into the future.  Or as Martin Ford may say, “Lights in the Tunnel.”

The problem is that we struggle to see these signals and dots.

Whether they are hidden in the chaos of our exponentially changing times or we find that they are pushed away by our own mental models and cognitive biases that are often too confining to stretch past the fantastical realities they are inferring…

We fail to interpret what they are saying.

We fail to interpret the coming transformation they are inferring.  We fail to infer the disruptive change and changes they are quietly heralding.  We find ourselves trapped by our own cognitive constraints, unable to imagine and envision a new future that is unfolding right before us because of the trappings of our deeply embedded visions of the past.  So we talk of boxes and thinking outside to them, instead of confronting the mental models that we continue to drag into the future, limiting the signals we recognize and the depth and breadth of dots we are able to connect.

Too often, in these times of chaos and uncertainty…

We spend our time recoiling back into the safety of the past, when we should be stepping out into the opportunity of the future.  When we limit our willingness and ability to connect these disparate dots, to expand our lens into and of the future, the signals become dim and distant, unrecognizable.  Rather, our ability and willingness to push past confining cognitive biases and mental models allows those signals to quiver and resonate in the midst of the turbulence created by this new velocity of change, providing our individuals and organizations with a compass in the midst of the chaos and noise that tends to overwhelm those very same individuals and organizations.  Providing a more progressive, relevant and impactful way forward into this unpredictable future.

Too often we are blindsided by the unknown, as these signals of the emerging future emanating and radiating from that space beyond the known are often weak, unnoticed or even unbelievable.

Artificial intelligence, automation, digitization, globalization, outsourcing, poverty, are all dots sending out various signals for us to interpret in these exponential times.  Harbingers of what is to come; not what will be, but what might be.  We need leaders drenched in awareness, awareness of these signals and dots, of the acceleration of change, and of the exponential shifts they are levying across our systems and organizations.

Shifts that are shaking the very foundations of our societal ecosystems.

In the end, the worst stance is to be flat-footed and motionless, when change and disruption comes a calling, determined to pull the rug out from under you, to have the future forced upon you.  Rather, we need leaders drenched in awareness, connecting dots, searching for signals, willing to intentionally design our way forward in a much more proactive manner.

Creating organizational relevance in a time of accelerated obsolescence.

“The best leaders sense the future in order to compete in the present.”  “Foresight is the beginning of the journey.”  -via Bob Johansen Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present

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Intent to Adapt: (Part 2)

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“Everything starts from a problem – but not everyone faces the problem in the same way.”  -via Juan Carlos Eichholz Adaptive Capacity: How Organizations Can Thrive In A Changing World

Mike Tyson used to say that, “Everyone has a plan…until they get punched in the face.”  The reality is, every individual, every organization, is going to get punched in the face at least one time or another.  The problem is, it is happening quicker and more often in today’s VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world.

Change is accelerating, disruption is escalating, even our foundations are shifting…

As Peter Thiel shares in Zero to One, “Big plans for the future have become archaic curiosities.”  And it is not that strategies and plans have suddenly become useless, rather it is in the inability of our individuals and organizations to adapt when our “big plans” get “punched in the face” that often renders them ineffective to the new realities they are facing.

However, the ability of our individuals and organizations to adapt relies heavily on creating the capacity in which to do, so.  But, too often, especially in times of confusion and chaos, when capacity is lacking, and when adaptability and agility is most needed, leaders will turn to authority to fill that capacity gap.  Or as Eichholz shares in Adaptive Capacity, “The disequilibrium exceeded the adaptive capacity.”

In today’s VUCA world, we cannot believe that our individuals and organizations will be spared from the confusion, chaos and disruptions of a changing world and the adaptive challenges that arise within these shifting environments.  Or that the disequilibrium and tension that these environments create will be helped by leaders creating more structures, more rules, more hierarchy, and extending more authority, in fact, the challenges will become more exacerbated.

In fact, we need leaders who are much more engaged in strategic thinking, than strategic planning…

Leaders who are intentional in creating the organizational capacity to deal effectively with the disruption and loss that many of these adaptive challenges pose and impose upon our individuals and organizations.  In times of great upheaval, the organizations that are most effective and remain most relevant don’t turn to more authority, rather they have created the internal capacity that draws on greater levels of autonomy.

When leaders have a deeper awareness of the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of today’s world, they understand that any “big plan” has a much greater risk being “punched in the face” at one time or another.  And it is not in if it will happen, but when and how?  Building the ongoing capacity and autonomy of the organization allows for not only greater clarity, adaptability and agility when that “punch” comes, but the ability to carry out the ‘intent’ of those plans in the midst of the chaos and confusion that arise.

So as we carry forward with the work of building greater individual and organizational capacity to better face the adaptive challenges of today and tomorrow, I leave you with these thoughts from Adaptive Capacity by Juan Carlos Eichholz…

“But leadership is difficult to put into practice because it involves challenging people instead of satisfying them, asking questions instead of giving answers, generating disequilibrium and tension instead of providing comfort and safety, allowing differences to emerge instead of pretending that they do not exist, involving people instead of giving them instructions, and, in sum, confronting people with the problem instead of facing the problem by yourself or simply ignoring it.  All of this must be done within a strong containing vessel, one that holds people together while they are living with the complexities and losses of adaptive work.”